2023-12-18 | 512 Days After Learning Japanese on Duolingo - It's Time to Quit

If you clicked the link, expecting to directly read about my comments on Duolingo. Well, click here.

Though I guess nobody actually reads the article, so as a good old tradition, let’s start with some random thoughts.

512 is a special number, but probably very few people will regard 512 days as a special period of time, and celebrate it as an anniversary.

Since long ago, I have been imagining about a fictional anniversary, for which I will gather a group of people, and we will celebrate it together, without actually knowing what it is. Or, upload a celebration video to YouTube, and let people guess what we are celebrating.

The issue is, if you want to make a video, it must be about something, as in a plotless story, plot is still required to prevent it from being boring. Thus this social experiment is not feasible. Yet, inspired by the idea, we have a lot of concepts to explore. For example, the path dependence.

Path Dependence

Path dependence explains how the set of decisions one faces for any given circumstance is limited by the decisions one has made in the past, even though past circumstances may no longer be relevant.

One of the most famous examples is the QWERTY keyboard layout. It was designed to prevent typewriter keys from jamming, but now it is still used in modern computers, even though jamming is no longer a problem.

Consider you wish to change the keyboard layout to improve typing efficiency. Many issues will arise, such as:

• You need to contact the keyboard manufacturer who is willing to produce the new layout
• You will not get used to the new layout immediately
• There will be mapping issues when you use other people’s devices

If you have typed for many years, you will naturally get used typing efficiently with the QWERTY layout, without any conscious effort. Most people can type without looking at the keyboard, despite not as fast as a professional ten-finger typist.

Additionally, keyboard shortcuts, which are efficient due to the fact that we have developed muscle memory, will also be affected. For example, the shortcut for “copy” is Ctrl+C in QWERTY, but Ctrl+J in Dvorak. The different mapping can be confusing.

In conclusion, it is not practical to change the keyboard layout, even though it is inefficient. This is an example of path dependence. On the other hand, it is not impossible that human in the future will use a different keyboard layout, but then the external force must be strong enough to overcome the path dependence.

The main issue raised by path dependence is that, it is not easy to switch to a better option. For example, in a economic system with random initial conditions, it is very likely that the system will be stuck in a local optimum close to the input, instead of the global optimum. Therefore, the suboptimal solution exists not because it is better, but because it is easier to reach.

Last month I have discussed about the Sunk Cost Fallacy, which is a special case of path dependence. The difference is, path dependence is about the past decisions, while sunk cost is about the past investment.

Now consider the path dependence built on the top of unexpected solutions. Here, unexpected solutions refer to the approaches that are not explicitly intended by the designer, but are discovered by the users.

As an instance, game speedrunners often run into glitches that allow them to skip a large portion of the game or override the mechanics. The developers did not intend to make the game like this, but the players always find a way to break the game.

Some of the glitches are so useful that they become an ordinary part of the game. For example, in Terraria, half-blocks are not intended to be used as a platform, but they are highly utilized that the developers decided to keep them.

In the real world, the unexpected solutions are often directly related to the path dependence. As an example, crowdsourcing is a commonly accepted approach to break down a large task into reasonable subtasks, and distribute them to the external workers. It is indeed very efficient - especially in terms of cost - but not the only way to solve the problem. Many issues arise, such as: the quality, consistency of the work, and the difficulty to manage and coordinate the workers.

Well, here we are to discuss the path dependence. Very commonly, after the company has adopted the crowdsourcing approach, it is difficult to switch back to the traditional labor division. The reason is simple: the company has already invested a lot of time and effort to build and maintain the crowdsourcing platform - which is, kind of like a sunk cost. But, if the external workers are no longer available, or prohibited by the regulations, what can the company do?

The nature of unexpected solutions is that, they are not guaranteed to be available forever, and vulnerable to the external force. Therefore, the path dependence built on the top of unexpected solutions is unreliable. Even though, all categories of external services is not necessarily reliable - the change in cost, quality and availability is inevitable and forces you to change your approach gradually; the unexpected solutions bring even higher uncertainty, and you have to be prepared for the worst.

Thankfully as ordinary people, we do not really have to worry about external changes that can severely affect our lives - which may, still happen and very likely to happen throughout one’s life. But, for what we hold in our hands, considering the path dependence and possible alternatives is always better than not.

Related Concepts

Reading the Wiki page of path dependence, it can be observed that as a economic-social theory, path dependence is related to many, many other phenomena. Here I will briefly introduce some of them.

• Critical Juncture: A critical juncture is a historical moment when different paths are possible, but the one chosen imposes large constraints on future developments and decisions, often for a long time.
• Imprinting: Imprinting is a theory in organizational ecology that suggests that organizations are shaped by events that occur at the time of their founding. In a broader sense, imprinting refers to the phenomenon that the characteristics formed during a historical period (critical juncture) preserve for a long time, even though changed made in that period is no longer relevant.
• Innovation Butterfly: The innovation butterfly describes how a seemingly small perturbation can end up irreversibly changing the course of a system.
• Network Effect: A network effect is the phenomenon by which the value or utility a user derives from a good or service depends on the number of users of compatible products. This usually implies a positive feedback loop, in which the more people use the product, the more valuable it becomes for the remaining users. When critical mass is reached, a bandwagon effect can result in the product becoming widely adopted.
• Opportunity Cost: Opportunity cost is the loss of potential gain from other alternatives when one approach is chosen. In other words, opportunity cost is the value of the next best alternative forgone.
• Ratchet Effect: The ratchet effect is a phenomenon where after a streak of positive changes, the system is unable to return to the previous state, ending up with a new, higher baseline. For example, if the consumer price index (CPI) continuously increases, the price will never return to the previous level.
• Tyranny of Small Decisions: The tyranny of small decisions describes a situation where a series of small, individually rational decisions can lead to a large, collectively irrational outcome.

As I have discussed earlier this month, I regard exhibiting the process of logical thinking more important than the conclusion. Afterall, how would you deal with boring and impractical takeaways? Therefore, let’s analyze how these concepts are connected to each other.

The path dependence is usually collaborated with a positive feedback loop, at least initially. This encourages the user to rely more on the current approach, which benefits the user via the network effect.

In the long term, the process that leads to the current path is considered as a critical juncture, where the characteristics of the system largely differ from the previous state. Due to the imprinting, some of the characteristics will be branded into the system for a long time, even if the path has changed.

However, the path dependence also results in loss of potential gain from other alternatives, which is the opportunity cost. Even if it was efficient at the beginning, newer approaches may be more efficient, but since the user is already used to the current approach, and fears that switching to a new one will result in a loss of efficiency, the user is reluctant to switch.

In the end, such reluctance will result in a tyranny of small decisions, where keeping the current approach is locally rational but globally suboptimal. As the loss gradually accumulates, the external force will eventually break the positive feedback loop, and the system will return to the previous state, or even worse, temporarily. The end of a path dependence is usually accompanied by a ratchet effect, and it would take time to recover from the loss.

This is an example in which you can analyze the concepts in a logical way, without any professional knowledge. Developing this skill helps you to understand papers from any field, especially those connected to the social science (e.g. economics, sociology, psychology, etc.).

The End of An Era

512 days ago, I started learning Japanese on Duolingo. 512 days later, I have completed the course, and it’s time to quit. Well, not really, just quit Duolingo. I will continue learning Japanese, but not on Duolingo.

The reason is simple: I have completed the course, and there is no more content to learn. Although I have unlocked the daily review feature, it is not really useful anymore. Instead, I will switch to more serious learning methods to prepare for the JLPT exam.

So here’s a fast FAQ:

• Q: What motivated you to learn Japanese?
• A: This began during the summer vacation of 2022, when I had just graduated from high school. If you have experienced the summer of 12th grade, you will find it equally boring. I literally had nothing to do but just staying at home. Somehow I decided to learn Japanese, so it just began.
• Q: Why did you choose Duolingo?
• A: Probably just for fun. I could, for example, buy a textbook and learn in a proper way from the start, but I didn’t. I just wanted to learn some Japanese for fun, and Duolingo is a good choice.
• Q: What do you think about Duolingo?
• A: It is a good place to start learning a language, but no more than that. Below you will find a detailed review.
• Q: Why do you want to quit Duolingo?
• A: I have reached the point of no return in the language learning process. Duolingo can no longer satisfy my needs, and I might as well switch from fun-oriented to test-oriented learning methods.
• Q: What is your plan after quitting Duolingo?
• A: Memorize the vocabulary. Learn the grammar using a textbook. Practice reading and listening with native materials. Prepare for the JLPT exam. That may sound boring, but I feel like I can make it.
• Q: Do you have any more words about Duolingo?
• A: I am really really reluctant to halt the 512-day streak. But anyway let’s say goodbye to Duolingo. To make the number exactly 512, I spend much more time, like, 30 minutes per day, in the last few days to earn the December badge. All the rituals are done, and I am really done with Duolingo.
• Q: Finally, do you have any advice for people who want to learn Japanese?
• A: Before receiving the JLPT N1 certificate, I am not qualified to give any advice.

All You Need to Know About Duolingo

In the 1.5 years of learning Japanese on Duolingo, the course has been redesigned twice. The improvements are still to be made in the future, so just take this as a review of the current state.

Structure

Current course is divided into 5 tiers, each unlocks after completing the previous one. The tiers are:

• Language Basics (8 sections)
• Expressions 1 (20 sections)
• Expressions 2 (29 sections)
• Review (15 sections)
• Daily Review

The first 3 parts introduce new words and grammar, with each section covering 2 topics.

In each section, there are various types of exercise nodes, including:

• Topics. Each topic has 3 levels. Each level includes 5 exercises and 1 quiz.
• Review. Each review includes 2 to 4 exercises and 1 quiz.
• Stories.
• Final Quiz. It will always be the last node of the section.
• All the nodes are unlocked sequentially, and you cannot skip any of them.
• To unlock the next section, you need to either pass the final quiz, or take a placement test (you can jump to any section by this method).

Each topic introduces new words and grammar points. In the 1st level, they will be highlighted in the exercise, and many questions are merely about the pronunciation and meaning of the words. In the 2nd and 3rd level, the corresponding words will be reviewed, and the questions will be more difficult, usually involving the grammar points and sentence structure.

The review nodes cover everything learned up to this point, and is usually more difficult and comprehensive than the topic nodes. The stories are short stories, which are not directly related to the topic, but are still useful to practice listening - well, they are too hard for beginners but very easy as soon as you have a basic understanding of the language.

As for the coverage, the course completes the JLPT N5 and N4 levels, and partially covers the N3 level. Since words are organized by topics, it is very common to see easy and difficult words mixed together, but generally speaking, this part is well-designed.

However, the grammar part is not as good as the vocabulary part. Even though it covers most of the grammar points up to N4, the grammar is not as trivial as the vocabulary. It does not provide sufficient explanations for the grammar points, which forces me to search for related articles on the Internet. The grammar points are also not organized in a hierarchical way, which makes it difficult to understand the relationship between them.

Regarding the fact that Internet materials are not always reliable, which may contain contradictory or confusing information, I would really suggest you to buy a credible textbook to learn the grammar.

As a side note, the Language Basics tier introduce hira/katakana together with some simple words (but not kanji). This is a good design, because the kana would be very discouraging for beginners if learned separately.

Learning Experience

Duolingo is a gamified learning platform, which means it is designed to be fun. Its system improvements are always about making the learner more motivated - but not necessarily more efficient - to learn the language.

At first, to earn the monthly badge, you only need to earn 1000 XP in a month, which is simply too easy. If you keep the 2x XP streak, you can earn the badge easily by just doing 2 exercises a day - once in the morning, and once in the night.

Then they seeked to improve the system. The new daily goals are introduced, which are boring and requires much more effort to earn the badge. For example, this may require you to earn 50 XP, complete 5 exercises with 100% accuracy, and study for 15 minutes.

Simultaneously, the requirement to earn the monthly badge is changed to completing 30 daily goals in a month (and then later increased to 35, then 40, and now 45). This is a huge move, because it forces the user to learn every day, and learn much more than before. Some of the randomized goals are just too difficult to complete, because you are constrained by the hearts system, which is, in my opinion, the worst part of Duolingo.

Spoiled Duolingo

Current hearts system is also a recently introduced feature. As long as I can remember, in the past, you have 3 lives within a single exercise, and you will lose a life if you make a mistake. Now the only difference is, you have 5 global lives instead, and they regenerate over time at a rate of 1 life per 5 hours.

Unironically speaking, this invalidates all their efforts to motivate the user to learn. Making mistakes is a fairly ordinary part of the learning process, and reviewing mistakes is good for learning. But now you are punished for making mistakes, and wasting your time waiting for the lives to regenerate. I know the hearts system is a fairly common feature in mobile games, namely Candy Crush, but it is just inappropriate to bring such a game element into a learning platform.

What if you run out of lives? You can either wait for the lives to regenerate, pay 450 gems to refill the lives, do supplementary exercises to earn lives, or subscribe the Duolingo Super to earn unlimited lives. And no wonder it introduces the hearts system, because it is a good way to motivate the user to subscribe.

Yes. You Duolingo. Your slogan is “Provide the best language education for free”, but you are actually a freemium game. Of course you need to make money, but you are not honest about it.

Here’s the third and very strong reason to quit Duolingo: the ads.

For long my Duolingo has been ads-free. This is because in China mainland, Google Play Store and Unity Ads are blocked; and somehow in Hong Kong, there are no ads either. But recently (just late November). I have started to see ads in Duolingo. After every single exercise, you are forced to watch a 5-second ad. And it is always the same boring ad of one or two trash mobile games. That’s simply devastating, and I kind of know how you attract the users to subscribe.

One last thing to mention is, the toxic leaderboard. It is a feature that allows you to compete with 30 random users from all over the world, based on the XP earned in a week (the week starts on Monday, but the time varies depending on your timezone).

I am now placed in highest tier, Diamond League Finals. So why am I saying it’s toxic? Yes, indeed, it’s a broken system with toxic community.

First of all, you have various ways to earn XP. The normal exercises give 10 XP, the final quiz gives 20 XP. But that’s not even comparable with the master exercises, which gives 40 XP, but costs 100 gems to unlock (or free if you have Duolingo Super). And finally nothing is worth mentioning compared to the 2x XP bonus.

There are 4 sources of 2x XP bonus:

• Complete an exercise from 06:00-11:59 and then collect the bonus from 18:00-23:59 (device time).
• Complete an exercise from 18:00-23:59 and then collect the bonus from 06:00-11:59 (device time).
• Complete a final quiz.
• Complete 3rd daily goal.

Each of them grants 15 minutes of 2x XP bonus, which is stackable. Therefore, if you want to earn XP efficiently, you will have to be extra toxic by only doing the master exercises with 2x XP bonus. And that’s what the top users do. Look at the numbers; 5000 XP per week. If you want to promote from Tier 2 league to Diamond, you will have to be as toxic as them, because only 3 out of 30 users will be promoted.

Yet, Duolingo never changed the mechanics, effiectively encouraging the unhealthy competition.

And the system is weird. In Hong Kong, the leaderboard was only recently introduced, together with the infamous ads. But in China mainland, the leaderboard has been there for a long time. In the past, when I travel from mainland to Hong Kong, my leaderboard seems to be frozen; the leaderboard page does not exist, but I did not lose my rank. When I again travel from Hong Kong to mainland, I can continue to compete in the leaderboard. I don’t know nor care about the reason, but it is just weird.

Well, that’s all about Duolingo. I didn’t really expect to complain so much about it, but when I write it down, I just feel like I have to say it. It has gradually deviated from the original purpose, imposing more and more restrictions on the free users, and I am really, really annoyed about in-app ads (I would rather pay for the app sometimes).

But look at the price of Duolingo Plus. It is $9.99 per month or $59.99 per year. Why on earth would you pay for that? You can, literally buy a textbook with that money, and enjoy a much better learning experience. If, for some reason, you want to learn a language on Duolingo, it cannot be more than a supplement to your main learning materials.

Conclusion

• 504 days streak (I did miss a few days, but covered by the streak freeze)
• 78935 XP
• 18 monthly badges (Jul 2022 - Dec 2023)
• 5000+ minutes of learning
• top 1% learner in the world
• 100% Japanese course completion

Well, that’s all about it. Just let time free the streak, and I am done with Duolingo. Goodbye.